Birkie Forecast

2/23/2017 update  And OO webcam  FINGERS CROSSED?!

The pending storm was a significantly blown forecast in terms of storm placement from two days ago, when both the GFS and NAM models had over a foot of snow for MSP and the 6 inch line extending from west-central to NE Minnesota.  The European model was always a bit farther south and so far has done better on this particular storm.  I’ve seen the opposite on some storms, where the GFS does much better, but that’s why this field still incudes a lot of guesswork. 

 

The 12Z runs for the GFS and NAM are looking similar for precipitation in the pending storm, with a significant southeast shift over the last 2 days.  The GFS now has the far NW metro getting less than an inch and the far SE metro getting 9 inches.  So we should expect a pretty sharp drop off across the metro, assuming the GFS now has a handle on this storm.  If one is commuting from the NW side to the center of town tomorrow, the hassles may be light to moderate.  Commuting from the SE part of town to the center of town could be a big hassle tomorrow, mostly for the morning rush.  Snow there should be ending by evening rush, so probably not a big deal.

 

The GFS now has Hayward getting only flurries to an inch, even though the graphic still on the Duluth NWS web site shows 4-6 inches and has them under a winter storm watch, which officially means 6 inches or more of snow are possible.  The GFS has the significant accumulating snows far southeast of Hayward.  The 12Z NAM is a bit more hopeful for Hayward, and has them right on a very sharp cutoff between 2 inches to their west and 6+ inches to their east.  The way things are trending, I would lean toward the GFS, but we can always hope.  

 

For the extended period, the GFS brings in a weak system with perhaps 1-3 inches of snow on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, and then puts us in a colder northwest flow, with several Alberta clipper systems that each could drop 1-3 inches of snow, every couple days for the following 10-day period.