#weatherdad 1/17/18

The local NWS said this morning that it is WAY too early to talk about how much and where snow will fall from the coming weekend system.  But I’m going to talk again about the potential of this system, because it will tap into Gulf moisture, unlike most of the storm systems this winter, which have come at us from the west or NW, and did not tap significant Gulf moisture.

Compared to yesterday’s 12 GFS model run, today’s has the storm track around 150 miles closer to us, so rather than the bulk of the snow potentially going SE of the metro, this one has the heaviest snow to the NW of the metro.  Also, the current run implies some mixed precipitation at times for the metro, which could cut down snow amounts.  I would not be surprised to see later model runs put the track even farther NW, or perhaps even move it back SE.  In any case, if the storm-total precipitation depicted below (see today’s GFS graphic) was all snow, is would be 12-15+ inches for the metro.   Some light snow or freezing rain could start in the metro Saturday evening, gradually becoming more widespread during the day Sunday, and with heaviest accumulations on Sunday evening. 

So precipitation types/mix/amounts are still very much in question, as is the storm track and strength.  But it bears watching, so stay tuned for later updates.

Maybe Snow